Continuation Bets

    • kidacao
      Registro: 07-27-2007 Artículos: 5.413
      El articulo de continuation bets me esta dando problemas :p Mas que nada la primer pagina.. aca van mis dudas:

      ....Scenario A: Hero makes a continuation bet of $1.50 (1/3 of potsize). He's risking $1.50 to win $4.50. Hence, pot odds are 3:1. To make a profit, he must win this bluff 25% of the time.

      Scenario B: Hero makes a continuation bet of $2.25 (half potsize). He's risking $2.25 to make $4.50. His pot odds are 2:1, so now he must win 33% of the time to make this bet profitable.

      Scenario C: Hero makes a continuation bet of $3.00 (2/3 of potsize). He's risking $3.00 to make$4.50. His pot odds are 1.5:1. To make a profit, this bet must succeed 40% of the time.

      Scenario D: Hero makes a continuation bet of $4.50 (potsize). He's risking $4.50 to make $4.50. His pot odds are 1:1. To make a profit, he must win in 50% of cases.

      You can see the logical connection: the larger your continuation bet, the more successful you must be.

      Como me doy cuenta del porcentaje de veces que voy a ganar la mano para determinar el tamaño de mi continuation bet?

      Additional outs

      In the example above, the hand also has very few additional outs that would allow you to win if your continuation bet were to be called. There is a weak draw on both overcards. You would have 4 discounted outs if your continuation bet were called and you went heads up. You must also consider these possibilities when considering a continuation bet.

      Under the assumption that you will win a further $10 from your opponent if he calls you and you hit one of your four winning outs, examine the possible outcomes on the hand:

      Scenario A: The opponent folds on the flop against the continuation bet and you gain $4.5.

      Scenario B: Your opponent calls the continuation bet. You will hit one of your 4 outs and win another $10 around 8.5% of the time. So there is a 91.5% chance that you will not hit your outs, fold on the turn and lose your $2.5. The average loss if you're called will be 0.085 * $10 + 0.915 * (-$2.5) = -$1.4375.

      Now let us see how often our opponent must fold against our continuation bet so that we will at least break even with the move.

      0 = Pfold * $4.5 + (1 - Pfold) * -$1.4375

      the result: Pfold = 0.24

      considering that you still have a few outs, your opponent must fold in over 24% of continuation bet attempts so that the whole strategy has a positive expected value.

      Clearly, this is a much-simplified calculation. The count of the actually outs and also the future winnings if you hit these outs can only be roughly estimated. But it should give an impression for how additional outs change the necessary success rate for a continuation bet. Similar to the example above, you should also watch for gutshot straight draws. Remember, the more payoff happy the opponent, the better additional outs look.

      Bueno.. esto me da dolor de cabeza porque no lo entiendo para nada :D Por ejemplo cuando dice que suponemos que ganaremos 10$ adicionales si acertamos uno de nuestros outs despues de que nos hayan hecho call a nuestra apuesta de continuacion.. esos 10$ de donde vienen? De haber apostado 3$ en el flop?

      Y si alguien se toma la molestia de explicarme las ecuaciones estaria agradecido :)

      Ahroa estoy apurado y me tengo q ir pero mas tarde vengo y si es necesario traduzco el texto que cite.

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